It was designed for capturing tropical cyclone inner core processes, including interactions with the large-scale processes which have been proven to be critical for improving track, intensity, rainfall and size predictions. The HWRF model is a storm-following, double-nested, high-resolution, grid modeling system designed to operate at a horizontal resolution of 2 km or less. These achievements provide hurricane forecasters not only with improved forecast guidance, but also with critical information on the evolution of the three dimensional wind structure within the storm. Using cutting-edge numerical modeling and verification techniques, our research has helped accelerate the advancement of the model’s development and has played a key role in the success of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project. These developments formed the backbone of the operational HWRF and resulted in continuous improvements to its track, intensity and structure predictions in the following years. The experimental HWRF incorporated a movable multilevel nesting algorithm with planetary boundary layer and surface physics, carefully calibrated by in situ observations obtained from the hurricane inner-core region. From 2008-2011, scientists at AOML developed an experimental HWRF to target the intensity change problem. “You ought to be cautious, because a lot can happen.HWRF was transitioned to operations at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction in 2007. Still, for now, it’s smart to prepare, Myers said. Maria needs a warm ocean to keep up its strength. “I am not at all confident Maria is going out to sea,” he said.Ī saving grace: Jose held its hurricane power for a long while, stirring up a lot of cold water from the depths of the Atlantic. Another scenario has southeastern Massachusetts absorbing a blow.Īs Jose falls apart, there’s a chance the high-pressure system that’s forcing it into its loop will grow more robust, Masters said. If Virginia and North Carolina take a hit, then the Northeast will be spared. Masters said it could be an either-or situation. “These areas should be thinking about preparing for the less likely scenario of a direct landfall,” Crawford said. About $8.7 trillion in insured property lies between Maine and North Carolina, and some 39 percent of that is in New York, according to the Insurance Information Institute in New York. There’s a 20 to 25 percent chance Maria will threaten North Carolina’s Outer Banks by Tuesday and then swirl by New York’s Long Island and Cape Cod in Massachusetts, said Todd Crawford, lead meteorologist at the Weather Company in Andover, Massachusetts. That’s a first for one season, Masters said. Three Category 4 hurricanes have now struck U.S. Five became hurricanes and four grew into systems with winds of 111 miles per hour or more. In all, six Atlantic storms were strong enough to earn names in the last four weeks. The total could reach $300 billion when destruction on islands including Barbuda and Dominica are taken into account, Myers said. and Puerto Rico could reach $170 billion from Harvey, Irma and Maria, according to Chuck Watson, a disaster analyst at Enki Research in Savannah, Georgia. The death toll is over 100.ĭamage to the U.S. 25, when Harvey slammed into Texas, a train of hurricanes have hit the U.S., Mexico and the Caribbean. “It is extraordinary, no question about that,” said Joel Myers, founder, president and chairman of AccuWeather Inc. While many meteorologists expected an active summer of storms, the burst in the last month was a shock. Maria will move toward that circle in the coming days, its ultimate destination as yet unknowable.Īnd it has been a season of surprises. There are two very uncertain things interacting.”ĭowngraded to a tropical storm Tuesday, Jose will turn in an ever tighter circle through the rest of the week, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. “There is a lot more uncertainty than usual. “Models don’t handle storm-storm interaction very well,” said Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Few meteorologists, though, were willing to lay bets. As of late Wednesday, most computer models called for Maria to end up over the ocean. Depending in part on zombie Jose, Maria could spin out to sea - or into the eastern seaboard.įorecasting the scenario is difficult because there are so many moving parts.
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